发布时间:2019-07-15 17:06:47
从新能源车的全生命周期管理来看，新能源车发展的环保问题应引起重视。
■中国科学报记者 李惠钰
这段时间以来，很多人的目光都聚焦在新能源汽车限购“解禁”的话题上。
国家发展改革委、生态环境部、商务部日前印发《推动重点消费品更新升级 畅通资源循环利用实施方案（2019—2020年）》（以下简称《方案》）。《方案》提出，各地不得对新能源汽车实行限行、限购，已实行的应当取消。鼓励地方对无车家庭购置首辆家用新能源汽车给予支持。
《方案》一经出台，南方一些城市率先对此项新规给予响应。广州、深圳相继放宽了汽车限购措施、增加指标配额，其他城市相关政策制定也在酝酿之中。不过，据记者了解，北京短期内想要调整，实施难度还比较大。
新能源车不但环保而且节能，这是现阶段所有人的共识，但是，如果新能源汽车迎来爆发式发展，就真的会减少环境污染吗？
是否如愿还未可知
汽车产业是我国的支柱产业，现阶段其正在往新能源方向升级转型。《方案》的出台无疑是推动我国汽车产业升级转型的一针强心剂。不过，这根针扎下去是否会产生预期的效果，还未可知。
“新规是否会如政府所愿拉动汽车消费的快速增长，不同城市表现存在明显差异。”北京交通大学交通系统科学与工程研究院教授徐猛分析认为，《方案》对购买新能源车意愿较为强烈的限购城市，刺激消费作用的预期会比较明显，但是否“引爆新能源车市场”还需观察。
徐猛对《中国科学报》表示，这些需求强烈的城市如果当前面临严重的交通拥堵，以及充电桩等新能源车配套设施不足等问题，会导致新能源车出行便捷性降低。另外，新能源车受技术所限，给消费者带来的“里程焦虑”等因素并未减少，新能源车的公众接受度仍然是新能源车市场发展的不确定因素。
威马汽车首席数据官梅松林也表示，如果为了促进汽车销量而一下子放开需求，环境污染、拥堵问题等关键指标都将受到很大影响。
以北京为例，若北京未来对新能源车停止“设限”，势必会刺激北京的新能源消费。但与此同时，北京市也将面临严重的交通治理和环境治理挑战，交通需求与供给不平衡、停车位不足、停车管理水平有待提高。徐猛预计，北京会结合本地实际情况，理性处理对新能源车停止“设限”问题。
在徐猛看来，《方案》在一定程度上能激励新能源汽车企业进一步加大对新能源汽车的研发投入，突破新能源汽车相关技术难题（如动力蓄电池技术、快速充电新技术、电池防护技术等）。但上述政策仅为顶层设计文件，没有给出具体的执行时间，真正发挥消费拉动作用还要依靠各个地方出台实施细则。
电池回收是巨大挑战
从新能源车的全生命周期管理来看，新能源车发展的环保问题应引起重视。
值得注意的是，新能源车高速增长的背后，动力电池退役潮也即将到来。对于新能源车来说，动力电池的衰减问题是无法绕开的。根据国家规定，当动力电池容量衰减至80%以下，就会进行强制回收。一般来说，动力电池寿命为6~8年，若以2014年为我国新能源汽车元年来算，第一轮动力电池退役潮已经逼近。
“动力蓄电池的回收问题将成为新能源车管理的重大挑战。”徐猛强调，虽然目前我国正在加速推动建设、完善动力电池回收体系，但与发达国家相比，我国动力电池回收管理体系建设起步较晚，仍不够完善、健全。而一旦动力电池回收不当，将造成巨大的环境污染，这也违背使用新能源汽车缓解环境问题的初衷。
“1个20克的手机电池可污染3个标准游泳池容积的水，若废弃在土地上，可使1平方公里土地污染50年左右。试想，如果是几吨重的电动汽车动力电池废弃在自然环境中，大量重金属及化学物质进入大自然，将会对环境造成多大的污染。”中国工程院院士、北京理工大学教授吴锋的观点一度引发了行业的大讨论。
中国电池工业协会副理事长王敬忠也对记者表示，锂电池虽然不含汞、镉等毒害性较大的重金属元素，但是电解液溶质六氟磷酸锂属有毒物质且易潮解，与空气中的微量水分反应生成氢氟酸等，会造成氟污染。溶剂经水解、燃烧分解等化学反应可能生成易溶于水体的小分子有机物，造成水源污染。
除了环境污染隐患，动力电池回收不当还会造成能源浪费，以及巨额经济损失。徐猛指出，废弃电池中回收钴、镍、锂、锰、铁和铝等多种金属所创造的市场规模，预计2018年超过53亿元，2020年将超过100亿元。
而从整个动力电池行业来看，目前业界也尚未形成针对梯次利用和再生利用等方面核心技术的行业技术标准，也缺少激励政策措施，以鼓励相关公司主动开展回收和利用工作。对此，徐猛建议，首先国家要从动力电池分类、电池的成分等方面建立统一的电池回收处理标准；其次要明确电池生产商、整车企业、回收利用企业、消费者等相关主体的责任，便于依法惩戒违法行为；最后还应建立有效的商业模式，积极回应在整个产业链环节中如何盈利、收益如何分配、相关成本由谁承担等问题，鼓励相关企业主动回收。
电力需求增长带来压力
另一个值得探讨的问题是，新能源汽车无论是混动车型还是电动车，都离不开电，那么电又从何而来？
根据相关调查，近年来我国新能源汽车用电需求量越来越大，给城市供电系统带来了一定压力。一方面，这一趋势要求城市进行电动汽车充电基础设施建设；另一方面，新能源汽车大规模使用也意味着电力服务商必须提升其电力供应水平。
徐猛告诉记者，目前的新能源汽车的电源由城市供电网提供，而电力来源是以煤炭为主的火力发电，传统的火力发电会产生烟尘和较高的碳排放量，所以中国的电动汽车是否清洁、环保，新能源汽车的大规模使用所带来的电力需求增长是否会导致新的环保压力，的确存在不确定性。
而对于新能源汽车“污染转移”的质疑，比亚迪销售公司总经理赵长江则认为，目前中国电力来源中清洁能源发电占到1/3，随着国家能源结构的调整和升级，未来清洁能源发电将越来越多，电力需求产生的环保压力并不太大。
不过，在徐猛看来，为解决电动汽车大规模使用环节产生的额外环保风险问题，还需要将能源生产过程产生的排放纳入环保评估范畴，进行全生命周期管理和评估，这也是保证新能源汽车可持续发展的关键之一。另外，为保证新能源车的市场发展，徐猛还建议加快充电桩充电速度，解决当前新能源汽车领域充电难、充电时间长的问题，进一步提高新能源汽车的市场渗透率，形成一定的规模经济效益，同时也在较大的应用范围内发挥其环保优势。
From the perspective of full lifecycle management of new energy vehicles, the environmental issues with the development of new energy vehicles should be given much attention.
■ China Science Daily reporter Li Huiyu
These days, many people have focused their attention on the topic of “lifting of ban” on purchase of new energy vehicles.
The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the Ministry of Commence recently published the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Major Consumer Goods and Enabling Smooth Resource Recycling”(2019-2020)(“Plan”). The plan makes it clear that use or purchase of new energy cars may not be restricted across the country and any restrictions already in effect shall be revoked. Local governments are encouraged to support carless households to purchase their first new energy cars for family use.
Once the plan was enacted, some cities in south of China took the lead to respond to this new regulation. Guangzhou and Shenzhen relaxed their restrictions on car purchase and increased the quotas in succession, with related policymaking in other cities being brewed. However, the reporter has learned that it is quite difficult for Beijing to make any adjustments in short term.
It is a consensus of all people at present that new energy vehicles are both environment-friendly and energy saving, but if new energy vehicles embraced an explosive growth, could environmental pollution really be reduced?
It remains to be seen
The auto industry is a pillar industry in China and is now upgrading and transforming in the direction of new energy. The enactment of the plan is undoubtedly a boost to the upgrading and transformation of China’s auto industry. Nonetheless, whether it will produce the expected results or not remains to be seen.
“As to whether this new regulation will drive the rapid growth of auto consumption as the government wishes, different cities are remarkably different from each other in performance,” said Prof. Xu Meng with the Institute of Transportation System Science and Engineering of Beijing Jiaotong University, adding that the simulating role of the plan for those cities imposing purchase restrictions where the willingness to purchase new energy vehicles is strong is expected to be rather remarkable, but whether it will “lead to the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market” remains to be seen.
Xu Meng told China Science Daily that these cities with strong demand will see reduced convenience in use of new energy vehicles if they currently face serious traffic congestion and undersupply of supporting facilities for new energy vehicles such as charging piles. In addition, due to the technological constraints, the “last-mile anxiety” and other factors that new energy vehicles bring to consumers have not yet been reduced and the public acceptance of new energy vehicles remains an uncertainty for the development of new energy vehicle market.
WM Motor’s chief data officer Mei Songlin also noted that the key indicators such as environmental pollution and traffic jam will be remarkably affected if the demand is unleashed at once in order to promote auto sales.
Take Beijing as an example, if Beijing ceases to “impose restrictions” on new vehicle vehicles in the future, it will inevitably spur the new energy consumption in Beijing. But in the meantime Beijing will also face daunting challenges of traffic management and environmental management, with improvements to be made in terms of imbalance between transportation demand and supply, undersupply of parking lots and parking management performance. Xu Meng predicts that Beijing will rationally deal with the issue of ceasing to “imposing restrictions” on new energy vehicles in light of the local reality.
To Xu Meng, the plan can motivate new energy carmakers to further increase input in R&D of new energy vehicles to a certain extent, thus overcoming technical challenges related to new energy vehicles (such as power storage battery technology, new technology of quick charging and battery protection technology). But the aforesaid policy is merely a top-level design document that does not provide the specific implementation timeline, so it falls on local governments to enact implementing rules in order for the plan to truly help boost consumption.
Battery recycling is a huge challenge
It is worth noting that the tide of decommissioning of power batteries is about to come behind the fast growth of new energy vehicles. For new energy vehicles, the attenuation problems with power batteries can not be bypassed. According to the national regulations, when the power battery capacity attenuates to below 80%, they will be mandatorily reclaimed. Generally speaking, the power battery life is 6 to 8 years, and if the year 2014 is the first year of China’s new energy vehicle industry, the first tide of decommissioning of power batteries is approaching.
“The recycling of power storage batteries will become a major challenge to management of new energy vehicles,” emphasized Xu Meng, adding that although China is now speeding up the construction and refinement of the power battery recycling system, China’s power battery recycling management system is a latecomer compared with developed countries and remains underdeveloped. Once power batteries are improperly recycled, it will cause tremendous environmental pollution, which is also against the original intent to use new energy vehicles to address the environmental problems.
“A 20g cellphone battery can pollute water of three standard swimming pools and, if abandoned on land, can pollute 1km2 land for about 50 years. Imagine how much environmental pollution will result if tons of eclectic vehicle power batteries are abandoned in the natural environment and a large amount of heavy metals and chemical substances enter the mother nature,” said Wu Feng, academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering and professor with Beijing Institute of Technology, a viewpoint that once aroused extensive discussions in the industry.
Vice Chairman of China Battery Industry Association Wang Jingzhong also told the reporter that although lithium batteries contain no highly toxic heavy metal elements such as mercury and cadmium, the electrolyte solute lithium hexafluorophosphate is a toxic substance and easy to deliquesce and will cause fluorine pollution when reacting with trace moisture in air to produce hydrofluoric acid. The solvent, through chemical reactions such as hydrolysis and combustion decomposition might produce small molecule organics easily solvable in waters, thus causing water source pollution.
In addition to possible environmental pollution, improper power battery recycling will cause energy wastage and tremendous economic losses. According to Xu Meng, the market size created out of recovery of cobalt, nickel, lithium, manganese, iron and aluminum in discarded batteries is expected to exceed 5.3 million Yuan in 2018 and over 10 billion Yuan in 2020.
From the perspective of the entire power battery industry, industry technology standards for such core technologies as cascade utilization and recycling have not yet been formed in the industry so far, nor there are sufficient incentive policy measures to encourage related companies to actively pursue recycling. To this, Xu Meng suggested that, first of all, national unified battery recycling standards be established in terms of power battery classification and battery composition; secondly the responsibilities of related entities such as battery manufacturers, carmakers, recyclers and consumers should be defined in order to punish legal violations according to law; last, an effective business model should be established to actively respond to the issues of how to profit, how to distribute earnings and who should bear the related costs across the entire industry chain and to encourage related companies to actively pursue recycling.
Pressure from growing power demand
Another question worthy of discussions is where electricity comes from since new energy vehicles, be it hybrid models or electric vehicles, can not go without electricity?
According to related surveys, the power demand of new energy vehicles in China has been growing over the past years, producing a considerable pressure on the urban power supply system. On the one hand, this trend requires cities to build charging infrastructure for electric cars; on the other hand, the extensive use of new energy vehicles also means power service providers have to increase their level of power supply.
Xu Meng told the reporter that the power supply to new energy vehicles today comes from urban power grids, while power source is thermal power generation centered on coal, which will generate fume and high carbon emissions, therefore it indeed remains uncertain as to whether electric cars in China are clean and environment-friendly and whether the growing power demand brought by the extensive use of new energy cars will result in new environmental pressure.
As to the questions about the “pollution transfer” of new energy cars, general manager of BYD Sales Co., Ltd Zhao Changjiang believes that the clean energy power generation accounts for 1/3 of the power sources in China today and will have a growing share in the future along with the readjustment and upgrading of the national energy mix, meaning the environmental pressure from power demand is not excessively huge.
However, to Xu Meng, to resolve the extra environmental risks from the extensive use of electric vehicles also requires the emissions from the energy production process to be included in the environmental impact assessment for full-lifecycle management and assessment, which is also one of the keys to ensuring sustainability of new energy vehicles. In addition, to ensure the market development for new energy vehicles, Xu Meng also suggests increasing the charging speed of charging piles, addressing the issues of difficult access to charging and long charging hours in the field of new energy vehicles at present, further increasing the market penetration of new energy vehicles to form a certain economy of scale while leveraging its environmental protection advantages within a larger scope of application.
